Was a second Donald Trump presidency ever in doubt?
His sweeping victory in the US presidential elections may have come as a surprise to some, but the car industry had long expected – and was preparing for – the return of the Donald and all that comes with him.
Trump’s second stint as president is likely to have huge implications for the electric car industry both in the United States and internationally, while UK car makers will be watching on nervously, too.
A Trump administration has, in the past, focused on deregulation and prioritising traditional energy sectors, like oil and gas, over green energy initiatives. Trump’s known to be sceptical about climate change, so the future of electric vehicle growth in the US and its influence on the global car industry could face big challenges under his watch. The US may not be the great global car making nation it once was, but Americans still buy a huge number of cars every year – with plenty coming from the UK.
In his previous term, Trump rolled back many of the Obama-era emissions standards and fuel economy regulations designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. Back then, Trump’s move was broadly seen as beneficial for traditional automakers who rely heavily on internal combustion engines.
It was a setback for the EV industry, which benefits from stricter emissions standards that make electric alternatives look more attractive. But the auto world moves on quickly and the speed at which car makers have pivoted to electric vehicles has changed their businesses.
The growing influence of key figures in the EV industry, particularly Elon Musk, could mitigate some of these impacts and shape Trump policies that affect the EV landscape.
There were few louder cheerleaders for a Trump presidency than Musk (who also saw his personal wealth jump massively on the back of the election result) and it’s likely that the new President will listen to Musk’s views on EVs and climate change – as well as the waste that Musk sees in US government - as the Tesla and X boss heads up the Department of Government Efficiency for the Trump administration.
For the UK car industry, Trump’s potential policies might result in slower adoption of electric vehicles in the US, which could have a knock-on effect on UK automakers’ priorities and export markets – particularly among our many luxury brands.
The UK, which has committed to banning the sale of new purely petrol or diesel cars by 2030, may find that a delay in EV adoption in the US impacts British manufacturers’ economies of scale and global production strategies – Bentley has already announced a push back of its full-electrification plans from 2030 to 2035.
Companies like JLR, which is already pivoting towards electric and just about to reveal the first of a new breed of all-electric Jaguars, could face challenges if the US market becomes less receptive to EVs. Reduced demand in one of the world’s largest car markets might slow down the momentum towards electric car production globally, potentially affecting the UK’s ability to meet its own ambitious climate targets.
Of a bigger concern to UK car makers is the potential of tariffs being put on the many cars that are exported to the US by the likes of Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Aston Martin and JLR. This could have a serious impact on these brands’ bottom lines, in turn affecting manufacturing in the UK. However, if there’s one sector that, in the past, has seemed to be relatively immune to price rises, it’s the luxury sector.
Although Trump’s broader environmental approach may not align with the UK’s green ambitions, the global EV market is no longer solely shaped by the US, especially with China playing a key role. With EU regulations and strong UK government support for EVs, the UK car industry will continue pushing towards electric despite US policies.
A Trump presidency is likely to create some headwinds for the car business globally, while the threat of tariffs will have a huge knock-on effect for the car makers that rely on the US’s huge car market. For the UK, though, the transition to electric will continue, but with possible delays – as we’ve seen with Bentley – as car manufacturers react to shifting US policies, whichever direction they may head in.
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Steve Fowler is one of the UK’s best-known automotive journalists and currently EV Editor of The Independent and a regular contributor to The Guardian.
He’s the only person to have edited three of the UK’s biggest car titles – Auto Express, Autocar and What Car? – and has interviewed the biggest names in the car world from Tesla’s Elon Musk to Ford’s Jim Farley.
Steve has also presented documentaries for BBC Radio Four and is used as a resident ‘car guru’ on TV and Radio. He’s a World Car of the Year juror and a judge on both Germany’s and India’s Car of the Year Awards.
Read more of Steve's work at stevefowler.co.uk.
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